Is the market too optimistic? An in-depth analysis of BTC's current volatility data and price trends

Recent Bitcoin market conditions present a seemingly calm surface but with underlying turbulent currents. Although BTC price has been oscillating around $70,000, professional data from the options market signals a warning: market expectations for future volatility are declining too rapidly, which may indicate that Bitcoin’s intermediate bottom has not yet been confirmed. This article combines the latest Gate market data with derivatives market analysis to interpret the current delicate stage of BTC.

Market appears calm on the surface, but volatility risk premium (VRP) shows historic anomalies

According to GreekLive’s analysis, implied volatility (IV) for major maturities has recently dropped significantly, indicating traders’ expectations for future price swings are weakening. However, in stark contrast, the realized volatility (RV) over the past week remains elevated. This divergence has led to a rare and sharp decline in the key indicator—the one-cycle volatility risk premium (VRP).

Source: Adam@Greeks.live

Data shows that this premium has plummeted from +20% last week to around -25% now, with an average decline of approximately 45%. Such a magnitude of change is uncommon in historical data. A negative VRP means the market is paying less for future volatility (IV) than the actual recent realized volatility (RV), typically suggesting market sentiment that “the most intense swings are behind us.”

Why is “expectation decline too fast”? The clustering nature of Bitcoin’s volatility is key

The rapid shift in market sentiment is noteworthy because Bitcoin’s volatility exhibits significant “clustering.” That is, after large price swings, the market does not immediately settle into a prolonged calm but is likely to experience high volatility again in the short term. Historical patterns repeatedly show that after sharp declines or rises, secondary waves of volatility often follow.

Currently, institutional investors seem overly optimistic about upcoming stability, expecting the market to quickly enter a calm phase. However, if BTC faces a second wave of downward pressure, such overly “cautious” expectations could leave market participants in a very passive position. The options market data shows that irrationality has increased markedly, which often reflects that the market has not fully cleared out and sentiment has not bottomed.

Combining Gate data: BTC current price and market cap analysis

As of February 10, 2026, according to Gate data, Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $70,125.1. Over the past 24 hours, the price reached a high of $71,439.2 and a low of $68,302.1, showing a sideways consolidation pattern. Its 24-hour trading volume is $904.4 million, with a current market cap of $1.41 trillion, accounting for 56.14% of the entire cryptocurrency market.

In the short term, BTC has slightly decreased by 0.83% over 24 hours. Looking at longer timeframes, the past 7 and 30 days show declines of -9.10% and -22.05%, respectively, indicating the market is still in recovery from recent lows, with some selling pressure remaining above.

Mid- to long-term outlook: data-driven BTC price forecasts

Based on Gate’s multi-model analysis, the average price of Bitcoin in 2026 is projected to fluctuate around $70,791.3, with an expected volatility range between $57,340.95 and $91,320.77. Looking further ahead, the model suggests that by 2031, the median long-term forecast for BTC could be around $135,919.36, with potential fluctuations between $72,037.26 and $149,511.29.

It’s important to emphasize that all price forecasts are neutral analyses based on historical data and market models, not investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and investors should conduct independent research and consider their risk tolerance before making any decisions.

Conclusion: Stay vigilant amid uncertainty

Combining GreekLive’s volatility analysis with Gate’s spot market data, although BTC’s price appears temporarily stabilized, signals from derivatives markets suggest that the market’s intermediate bottom may not yet be fully confirmed. The rapid contraction of volatility risk premium resembles an emotional “front-running” shift from extreme pessimism to premature optimism, rather than a calm judgment supported by solid fundamentals.

For investors, closely monitoring volatility data and the effectiveness of key support levels for BTC is crucial in the current environment. Market bottoms are often complex and revisited multiple times; confirmation typically requires time and repeated tests.