Which altcoins carry the highest liquidation risk? The focus in the second week of February should be on ETH, DOGE, and ZEC.

The market rebounded after panic selling, but a potential storm triggered by short squeezes is quietly brewing in the altcoin space.

Since mid-January, the cryptocurrency market has remained under pressure, with Bitcoin price fluctuations causing widespread liquidations. However, after three consecutive weeks of decline, buying pressure has cautiously begun to re-enter the market.

The subtle shift in market sentiment, combined with some catalysts unique to certain altcoins, could trigger a price rebound far beyond expectations this week. According to the latest analysis of Gate market data, Ethereum (ETH), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Zcash (ZEC)—three major altcoins—may collectively trigger over $3.1 billion in leveraged position liquidations if their prices move in specific directions.

Market Background: From Panic Selling to Short Risk Accumulation

In the first week of February, the crypto market experienced a sharp deleveraging process. Around February 4, Bitcoin fell below the $70,000 mark, prompting major altcoins to decline by 6% to 10%, with total market liquidations exceeding $775 million at one point.

After the panic sell-off, a technical rebound began to emerge. However, several fund managers noted that the speed of the market collapse was unexpected. “I don’t think anyone truly anticipated how quickly this level of panic selling would come,” said Zaheer Ebtikar, Founder and CIO of Split Capital.

This rapid decline triggered chain reactions of liquidations, and the current market structure has actually set the stage for reverse volatility. Analysts have observed that since December 2024, the non-Bitcoin token market has been in a “rolling bear market.”

The Liquidation Risk Landscape for Three Altcoins

To better understand the risk concentrations this week, we compare key data for three altcoins facing significant liquidation risk in the table below:

ETH: Double Play of Whale Liquidations and Exchange Reserve Depletion

Ethereum is currently the most concentrated asset risk-wise for shorts. According to Coinglass data, if ETH rebounds to $2,370, it could trigger up to $3 billion in short liquidations.

Ethereum liquidation map. Source: Coinglass

This enormous risk stems from two main factors. First, at the macro level, supply is tight. On-chain data shows that exchange-held ETH reserves have fallen to about 16 million, the lowest since 2024. Second, there is liquidation pressure from large whales. Entities like Trend Research hold substantial leveraged ETH positions, with average liquidation prices around $1,640.

Ethereum exchange reserves. Source: CryptoQuant

Based on Gate market data, ETH once dipped to $1,950, about $300 above the liquidation threshold. If prices fall into these zones, a concentrated forced liquidation could occur.

DOGE: Technical Patterns and Celebrity Effect Potential Resonance

Dogecoin has fallen below the $0.10 psychological level, matching its lows in 2024. However, its 7-day liquidation map shows that if the price rebounds to $0.109, it could trigger approximately $98 million in short liquidations.

Dogecoin liquidation map. Source: Coinglass

Technical analysis suggests this rebound is plausible. Trader Tardigrade notes that DOGE may be forming a “bull flag” pattern, a bullish continuation pattern. If confirmed, a breakout could push the price toward $0.12.

Long-term, Gate analysts point out that DOGE has formed higher lows after reaching higher highs, often seen as a sign of market strength. They believe that if this structure holds, DOGE could potentially rise over 640%.

Zcash: Technical Faith Supported After Team Shakeup

Among all altcoins, Zcash has experienced one of the deepest recent declines. Since January 8, its price has fallen about 50%. The privacy coin sector has declined over 25% in the past week, making it the worst-performing sector. The announcement that the core development team, Electric Coin Company, has all resigned has intensified market sell-offs. Nonetheless, some positive signals are emerging.

ZEC liquidation map. Source: Coinglass

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin publicly donated to Shielded Labs, which is dedicated to Zcash development, emphasizing “privacy is a core infrastructure of blockchain.” Data from zkp.baby shows that despite the price crash, over 5 million ZEC remain locked in privacy pools, indicating core user confidence in the technology remains strong.

Total shielded value (ZEC). Source: zkp.baby

Price Outlook and Market Watch

Based on current Gate market data and analysis, here are medium- to long-term price forecasts for Ethereum and Dogecoin:

Currently, the crypto fear and greed index has dropped into the “extreme fear” zone. Such sentiment often signals that a market reversal may be imminent. Ray Hindi, co-founder of L1D AG, notes that the intense deleveraging process is actually a “structural cleanup,” helping to eliminate excess and allowing truly valuable projects to stand out.

Available ETH supply on exchanges is shrinking, with data showing only about 16 million, the lowest in two years. Over 4 million ETH are queued for staking, further tightening liquidity. Dogecoin below $0.10, combined with technical signals, hints at a potential explosive rebound. Over 5 million ZEC quietly sit in privacy pools, with holders’ confidence in the technology unshaken despite the price crash.

The market’s balance is shifting from pure panic selling toward a critical point of extreme imbalance between bulls and bears. Any unexpected price movement—up or down—could trigger a liquidation storm on this highly leveraged terrain.