‘Some shipments are coming, so we’re safe!’

Think again
Here’s the situation —
petrol is at $2.44/L, rural stations are dry, 53 ships en route buys maybe 2 weeks of cover.
Mid to late April:
The cargo wave lands and we get momentary relief. But the drawdown starts the moment that cargo clears.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
April into May:
This is the supply cliff. That’s when mining (which burns 40% of Australia’s diesel) goes up against the food supply chain.
Mid May:
Sub 15 day diesel. Freight chains start failing. Groceries follow
Late May - June:
Full rationing territory, assuming large tankers stay shut out of Hormuz
Citrini puts the global catastrophe window at 3–4 weeks from a full toll system blockade. Australia’s lag buys a little time but not much.
If the US moves to block Iran’s tollbooth entirely, every stage above compresses by 3–4 weeks.
We are yet to see the full impact of this war