Three newly created wallets profited a combined $484,575 on Polymarket betting that the US and Iran would agree to a ceasefire by Tuesday, in the latest event to raise suspicion of insider trading.
The wallets were created and funded on Tuesday and had no prior activity before betting on Polymarket’s “US x Iran ceasefire by April 7” market, blockchain data shared by Lookonchain found on Wednesday.
Polymarket data shows the profits secured by the three wallets were $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 at the time of writing.
The “yes” bets were placed at probabilities between 2.9% and 10.3%.
The latest Polymarket trader made their first trade on the “US x Iran ceasefire by April 7” market at 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday, roughly eight and a half hours before US President Donald Trump confirmed that a ceasefire agreement had been made in a post to TruthSocial at 10:32 pm UTC.
The other two traders placed their first bets at 10:01 am UTC on Tuesday and 8:50 pm UTC on Monday.
_Source: _Lookonchain
The bets were paid out after the US and Iran’s Supreme National Security Council agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, although neither side has ruled out the possibility of further military action.
Prediction markets have become one of the fastest-growing uses for crypto and are consistently surpassing $10 billion in monthly trading volume.
However, lawmakers and regulators around the world have been heavily scrutinizing prediction platforms over fears of rising insider trading and market manipulation.
Polymarket insider trading alleged in the US and Israel
In January, US lawmakers introduced a bill to restrict government officials from trading on prediction market platforms after one Polymarket user profited over $400,000 on a market related to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being captured by US forces.
The successful bet raised suspicion of insider knowledge.
**Related: **__Polymarket takes down market on missing US pilot after backlash
In February, Israeli authorities arrested and indicted two people for allegedly using secret information to place bets related to Israel striking Iran on Polymarket in June 2025.
One of those arrested was a member of Israel’s military.
Polymarket and Kalshi have implemented their own measures to spot and deter insider trading.
In February, Kalshi said it formed an independent advisory committee and partnered with crypto trading surveillance platform Solidus Labs “to detect, investigate, and address market abuse.”
Magazine: __‘Phantom Bitcoin’ checks, Drift hack linked to North Korea: Asia Express
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
- #Iran
- #United States
- #Data
- #Industry
- #Polymarket
- #Prediction Markets
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
