Prediction Market

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf strongly criticized the status of U.S. troops in the Middle East, stating that the U.S. is unable to protect its own soldiers, implying its threats against Iran are ineffective. Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Minister accused the U.S. military of using civilians as "human shields" and called for a boycott of U.S. military booking. The U.S. Department of Defense is considering increasing ground troops to respond to potential changes in the situation.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced a cash investment of $600 million in the prediction market Polymarket and plans to acquire $40 million worth of securities from existing shareholders. ICE had previously invested $1 billion in Polymarket, bringing the total to $1.6 billion, demonstrating confidence in the potential of prediction markets. This investment is not expected to significantly impact ICE's financial performance.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has invested an additional $600 million in prediction market platform Polymarket, bringing its total commitment to nearly $2 billion. The investment underscores growing interest in event-based trading, despite regulatory concerns.

The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, announced a $600 million investment in Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market platform, which is a concrete implementation of its $2 billion plan from last year. The partnership between ICE and Polymarket will start in 2025 and will promote the institutionalization of prediction markets; however, the U.S. Congress is also concerned about related regulatory issues.

BlockBeats news, on March 27, according to The Wall Street Journal, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) announced that, as part of the previously arranged investment with Polymarket, ICE has completed a $600 million direct cash investment in Polymarket, which is part of Polymarket's equity financing. ICE also expects to purchase up to $40 million of Polymarket equity from some existing shareholders.

According to a report by Bloomberg, the Intercontinental Exchange has invested $600 million in the prediction market platform Polymarket.

Gate News reports that on March 27, data from the Polymarket platform shows that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 in March has risen to 67%, with a trading volume of approximately $8.24 million; the probability of Ethereum falling below $1,800 in March is 21%, with a trading volume of approximately $1.48 million. The time frame for the relevant contracts is from March 1, 13:00 Beijing time to April 1, 11:59.

The U.S. Senate has introduced the "Financial Prediction Markets Public Integrity Act," aimed at stopping government officials from trading event contracts using non-public information. The bill covers multiple officials, with violators facing severe economic penalties and transparency requirements. This legislation reflects the rising demand for regulation of prediction markets, signaling that they will become mainstream financial instruments.

The prediction market is heating up, with the total trading volume in the latest week reaching $6.41 billion, a month-over-month increase of over 11%. Kalshi and Polymarket have become the market leaders with transaction volumes of $3 billion and $2.5 billion, respectively. The two have formed a "dual-track parallel" development due to their differentiated positioning in compliance and blockchain architecture. Overall activity levels show divergence, reflecting the sensitivity of the prediction market to external events. Future growth will depend on product innovation and regulatory clarity, which could become a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain.

Israeli Air Force reservists are accused of using confidential information to trade on Polymarket in order to profit from the war between Israel and Iran that began last year. The two men have been charged with serious security offenses, bribery, and obstruction of justice. They had previously successfully predicted specific military operations and earned $162,663 in profits. Details of the case have been partially disclosed, but the defendants’ names have not yet been made public.

On the Polymarket platform, one wallet bet $200,000 that the United States would not invade Iran before March 31, despite the current market price falling. Iranian officials say there are no specific arrangements for negotiations, while Trump says negotiations with Iran are nearing substantive progress.

An Israeli Air Force reservist major allegedly used confidential information to trade on Polymarket, involving last year’s war between Israel and Iran. He and an accomplice were charged with serious offenses and made $162,663 in profits. Case details became public after some court gag orders were lifted, but the defendants’ names were not disclosed.

U.S. lawmakers have introduced the "2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act," which aims to prohibit government officials from using non-public information to place bets in prediction markets and requires the reporting of bets exceeding $250. The bill broadly defines insider information, with violations facing penalties of up to double the profits gained. This legislation reflects an increase in U.S. regulation of prediction markets.

Tech-focused asset manager ARK Invest said it will start using Kalshi’s prediction market data to improve how it makes its investment decisions, one of the latest cases demonstrating the broader value of prediction market data beyond trading. According to a statement from Kalshi, ARK will use predi

Polymarket has added a new event "When will the Trump administration terminate the Powell criminal investigation," with data showing a 39% probability of termination before April 30 and 56% before June 30. The market settles based on official information, and the investigation stems from Powell's testimony to Congress. Trump has stated that there are currently no plans to advance the investigation.

Hey Anon launches Pandora, a decentralized AI-driven prediction market on Ethereum, empowering users to create transparent markets without central control. The platform features unique AI consensus mechanisms and aims to innovate the prediction market landscape.

BlockBeats news, on March 27, Messari senior analyst Austin Weiler conducted a valuation assessment of the prediction market Polymarket in his latest research report. The report states that after implementing the fee structure, three scenarios can be predicted for the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of Polymarket by 2028 based on its current market share: Optimistic expectation: $111.2 billion; Neutral expectation: $24.2 billion; Pessimistic expectation: $6.4 billion.

On March 27, as gold prices declined, the probability of the event "Gold falling below $4,300 by the end of March" on Polymarket rose to 39%. International crude oil futures surged significantly due to uncertainties in US-Iran negotiations, while the three major U.S. stock indices fell. Meanwhile, spot gold dropped to $4,402.51, down 0.55% over 24 hours.

ARK Invest is leveraging Kalshi's prediction market data to enhance investment decisions. CEO Cathie Wood stated that this is an innovative step in financial research, helping to quantify uncertainty and support their focus on disruptive technology investments.

ARK Invest announces that it will incorporate data from the market prediction platform Kalshi into its research and risk management. ARK uses it to enhance research, real-time monitoring, and risk hedging, thereby improving investment decision accuracy. Kalshi recently raised $1 billion, with a valuation of $22 billion, demonstrating institutional interest in prediction markets and strengthening its market position.