#美国经济数据 Tracking the market expectations for the Fed Chair change—Hassett's probability on Polymarket has already reached 86%. This signal is worth paying attention to.
From the perspective of on-chain capital flows, the key is how his policy stance will change liquidity expectations. The combination of accelerated rate cuts and restarting QE directly implies an expansion of the dollar supply, which will have a structural impact on the attractiveness of crypto markets. I noticed that he previously held millions of dollars in Coinbase stock and participated in the digital asset policy working

#AI行业整体 The nodes for Bittensor's halving on December 14th have been confirmed, and the daily issuance of TAO has been halved from 7200 to 3600 tokens. This kind of structural change in supply is worth paying attention to and usually attracts incremental capital during the expected period.
Key points to observe: First, the on-chain fund movements before and after the halving—whether large holders are accumulating in advance, and how exchange inflow/outflow data evolve; second, whether the current TAO price has fully reflected the halving expectations or if there is room for an overshoot; thir

#美联储货币政策 Macron's remarks are worth paying attention to, but they need to be viewed in context. The core of stablecoin risk lies on the asset side—there is indeed a concentration issue with USD assets backing them. Once liquidity is under pressure, it could trigger a chain reaction. This is not an issue of crypto regulation easing itself, but rather a problem of financial system leverage and risk transfer.
From an on-chain data perspective, I focus on real signals: the speed of stablecoin inflows and outflows, the movements of whale addresses, and the risk exposure at the smart contract level

#比特币市场动态 Observed some interesting on-chain data changes. K33 Research's analysis indicates that December could be a turning point for the Bitcoin market, with current valuations reflecting more panic sentiment rather than fundamentals. Market structure shows a much higher probability of an upward move than a significant correction. Investors seem to be overly focused on long-term risks, such as quantum computing threats and MicroStrategy's potential reduction, while underestimating recent positive signals. Tracked on-chain fund flows also support this judgment. It is recommended to closely m

#Terra Luna Classic项目发展 Analyzing LUNC's recent performance, the 212% increase is indeed remarkable. This rally was primarily driven by two major factors: first, market expectations that a large amount of LUNC held by TFL will be burned, causing a supply shock; second, the imminent sentencing of Quandao Heng, which eliminated uncertainty in the ecosystem. However, the RSI is already in the severely overbought zone, indicating that this is more likely speculative behavior rather than a fundamental improvement. It is recommended to remain cautious and closely monitor the sentencing results on t

#链上分析工具 Just noticed that Michael Saylor has released new Bitcoin Tracker information. Based on past patterns, this likely means that Strategy will announce a new round of BTC accumulation tomorrow. Currently, Strategy holds 650,000 BTC, with a total value of $48.38 billion and an average price of $74,436. Notably, their current BTC holdings have an unrealized profit of 19.3%, approximately $9.35 billion. This development is worth close attention, and I will continue to track on-chain data, analyze capital flows and large holder behaviors to provide more reference signals for market trend jud

#稳定币发展 Analyzing Tether's reserve assets and liabilities data, there is no obvious systemic risk at present. With $181 billion in reserves against $174.45 billion in liabilities, a surplus of $6.8 billion, there is some assurance of solvency. The $10 billion profit in the first three quarters of this year also demonstrates its profitability. However, the risks associated with stablecoins should not be overlooked, and continuous attention to the quality and liquidity of its reserve assets is necessary. Investors are advised to remain cautious and closely monitor Tether's subsequent audit repor

#加密资产监管趋势 The latest policy developments indicate that domestic regulation of crypto assets is tightening. The former Vice President of the Bank of China explicitly stated the need to curb virtual currencies, including stablecoins, and the Chairman of the CSRC also emphasized a cautious approach to new business models. These signals suggest a stricter regulatory stance, and short-term growth for crypto assets is unlikely. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent policy developments and assess their impact on on-chain capital flows. At the same time, attention should be paid to overseas

#美国经济指标分析 Analyzing the expectation that the US unemployment rate in November will remain stable at 4.4%, it can be seen that the labor market remains relatively resilient. Although this level is higher than the pre-pandemic historical low, it still falls within a relatively low range. Staying stable suggests that the economy may be soft-landing, avoiding a sharp downturn. However, it is important to monitor trends in the coming months and other economic indicators such as wage growth and labor force participation rate to fully assess the employment market and overall economic conditions. Thi

#比特币价格走势 By observing the forecast data on Polymarket, there is a clear divergence in Bitcoin price trends. Within three days, the probability of BTC rising again to $100,000 has decreased from 52% to 33%, while the probability of dropping below $80,000 has increased from 27% to 37%. This rapid shift in expectations reflects the market's emotional instability.
From on-chain data, the activity of large coin holder addresses has recently increased, but there are no obvious signals of concentrated buying or selling. Capital flows are showing a dispersal trend, with no clear dominant direction at

#全球经济前景分析 Analyzing the potential market impact of changes in the Federal Reserve Chairperson selection, I believe that if Haskett is elected, it will bring significant changes. He may push for more aggressive rate cuts, lowering interest rates to below 3% or even 1%, and restart quantitative easing. This dovish stance is expected to stimulate economic growth and be favorable for risk assets.
It is worth noting that Haskett has an open attitude towards cryptocurrencies, having served as an advisor to Coinbase and holding its stock. He believes Bitcoin could "rewrite financial rules," a view t

#加密货币监管 This regulatory statement is worth paying attention to. From on-chain data, there have indeed been some warning signs recently. Fund flow analysis shows that some large holders are trending towards withdrawal, and the frequency of contract interactions has also decreased. The tightening of regulatory attitudes may further impact market sentiment. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent policy developments and pay attention to changes in the concentration of holdings of mainstream tokens. For emerging projects, it is especially important to carefully assess their compliance and

Analyzing recent stablecoin market risks, it can be seen that China's attitude towards stablecoins has become very clear - a resolute halt. This decision considers multiple factors: firstly, USD stablecoins have already dominated the market, and the development of non-USD stablecoins is extremely limited. Secondly, there are many issues with US stablecoin legislation, which could backfire on stablecoins themselves. More importantly, promoting the development of the Renminbi stablecoin offers no advantages and may even threaten monetary sovereignty and financial security. Overall, China's choic

#美联储货币政策 Just saw that the US September core PCE Price Index annual rate was announced at 2.8%, below the expected 2.9% and the previous 2.9%. This data has a positive impact on market sentiment, with Bitcoin already rising by 1.06% in the short term, breaking through $91,000.
From on-chain data, this could trigger a wave of short-term capital inflows. It is recommended to closely monitor the movements of large wallets, especially those "whale" accounts that hold coins long-term. If they start increasing their holdings, it may indicate a larger-scale rally.
At the same time, I will track the

#加密货币安全事件 Stay closely tuned to CZ's views on the security of hardware wallets. He emphasizes that private keys must never leave the device, which is indeed the key to protecting user assets. Analysis shows that recent investments related to hardware wallets have increased, indicating the industry's focus on cold storage security. It is recommended to track the technical solutions of projects like OneKey and evaluate whether their private key protection mechanisms are sufficiently reliable. At the same time, be alert that even hardware wallets may have security vulnerabilities. We will contin

#加密货币监管发展 The Bank of Japan may raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.75% in December, which would be the highest level in nearly 30 years. This expectation has already boosted the Japanese yen exchange rate and could put potential pressure on high-leverage cryptocurrency positions. Data analysis shows that the yen's strengthening aligns with the macro risk-off trend in investment portfolios, potentially limiting Bitcoin's rebound momentum. Notably, Japan also plans to implement cryptocurrency tax reforms in 2026, unifying the trading profit tax rate at 20%. These policy changes could influe

#比特币市场结构分析 According to the Ethereum cost basis heatmap, the $3180 and $2800 levels indeed form significant resistance and support levels. These two regions each accumulated approximately 2.6 million ETH, indicating a high density of holders. This concentrated holding phenomenon often influences price movements in the short term.
If ETH is to break through the $3180 resistance, it may require more buying pressure. Conversely, if the support near $2800 is effectively broken, it could trigger further selling pressure. It is recommended to closely monitor the trading volume changes and large tra

The timing of the Federal Reserve's rate cut indeed has sparked some controversy. Based on data, the September PCE Price Index is expected to reach 2.8% year-over-year, the highest level since April 2024. While Hasset believes it is now time to cautiously cut rates, I think a careful assessment is still necessary.
The key lies in the direction of inflation data. If the September PCE data released tonight meets expectations or is slightly lower, it could provide some support for a rate cut. However, if it unexpectedly exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may continue to keep rates unchange

#加密货币预测市场发展 Analyzing Vitalik's proposed on-chain Gas futures market concept, this is undoubtedly a forward-looking proposal. From a data perspective, this mechanism can provide users with more transparent Gas fee expectations and help optimize trading strategies. However, implementation is not easy and requires consideration of factors such as market liquidity and oracle reliability. If successfully implemented, it will bring significant improvements to the Ethereum ecosystem. It is worth paying attention to its subsequent development, especially the potential impact on DeFi projects and lar

#美联储降息预期 Recent PCE inflation data shows inflation continues to ease, and the Fed's rate cut expectations are heating up. However, the crypto market has decoupled from the stock market, with BTC temporarily falling to around 87,000. Analysis indicates that this is mainly influenced by factors such as options expiration and MicroStrategy pressure, rather than the inflation data itself.
In the short term, the 89,000-90,700 range remains a key support level. As long as this range is maintained, BTC still has room to rise. Resistance levels are at 94,400 and 97,000. Currently, market panic has ea