GateUser-3b3659cc

$SOX is more than 100% above its 200 week MA. It closed above the threshold last week. The only other time it did that was in November 1999, 4 months before the bull market top in March 2000. While earnings are not comparable by any means to then, it's something to keep in mind.

$TSLA - Closed the week below the yearly pivot again which is a bearish sign. If the market starts selling off next week it's at risk of making a new low for the year. An intermediate term low will be confirmed only if it closes above the 20 week MA.

$NVDA - 4th up week in a row but it hasn't made a new ATH yet, while all other top 10 SMH components(except for ASML) have already made new highs. Its gigantic market cap continues to be a psychological deterrent. It may not make a new ATH before its next earnings in late May.

$USOIL - If there's no deal between the U.S. and Iran the price of crude oil will probably keep pushing higher towards the 0.618 retracement of the March high to April low at 104. Obviously, it could go higher than 104 if the hot war resumes, as opposed to the current cold war.

$Silver - It looks like the bounce out of the March low ended at the 0.618 retracement of the March 3-23 downtrend and we're getting close to another sell signal. A close below 72.59 will likely lead to another decline to 61.

$Gold - I was expecting the bounce out of the March low to continue towards the 0.618 retracement at 5027. Instead, this week was a down week and price is getting close to another sell signal. A close below 4644 will lead to another decline to 4100.

$SPX - Made a new high today but it has reached the 2nd monthly resistance at 7166. The 3rd one is at 7431 and will not be reached in April. I expect a pullback to start next week and target the 20 day MA(currently at 6834 but rises every day).

They're looking for bag holders.

$SMH rallied 33% in the last 4 weeks. Since 2009, it rallied 27%+ in 4 weeks only 3 other times: after the 2020 Covid crash, after the 2022 bear market low, and after the 2025 tariff crash. Add to that reaching the yearly R2 pivot at 507, and it's at or close to a multi week top.

$SPX has stalled for the last 4 days. At this point it looks more likely that it will pull back into next week than keep moving higher, but that will happen only if it closes below the 10 day MA. If that happens we may see a decline to as low as the 20 day MA.

$SOX(semiconductors) rallied 42% in the last 17 trading days. This happened only twice in its history: On April 30, 2001, after 14 months of bear market. On November 1, 2002, at the beginning of a new bull market, and after 31 months of a severe bear market. Very strange.

$TSLA - Holding above the 20 day MA, which it did at the intraday low, will keep it in a bullish position to continue the uptrend off the March low next week. Losing the 20 day MA will lead to a retest of the March low, or a new low for the year.

According to SentimenTrader the Nasdaq had a breadth thrust on April 14. Based on that the market is unlikely to crash for the rest of the year, since the biggest drawdown at any point over the next 8 months in the prior 7 cases, was only 12%.

$TSLA - Closed above the 200 day MA on Friday, but closed below it again on Monday. In order to confirm that it made an intermediate term low on April 7 it has to regain both the 200 day MA and 100 day MA, otherwise it risks making a new low for the year in May.

TACO

$SPX - 2nd down day in a row. It looks like we're having a pullback and the target for this pullback is likely to be the rising 10 day MA which coincides with the topping range from the January-February timeframe.