AxelAdlerJr

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee plans to hold a hearing on Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Federal Reserve Chair.

Oil prices continue to rise. Crude futures started the week higher, with WTI trading above $101 per barrel. Investors are growing more skeptical about a quick resolution to the conflict with Iran after Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen widened the scope of the conflict, while Donald Trump said the U.S. could "take the oil in Iran" and is considering the seizure of Kharg Island.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened further. Investor focus is gradually shifting away from the oil-and-inflation narrative toward risks to economic growth and financial stability. On Friday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose as high as 4.48% - its highest level since the start of the Middle East conflict - before closing at 4.44%. As of today, it has eased back to 4.40%.
At the same time, the widening spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries over recent sessions confirms a further steepening of the curve.

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said the balance of risks has shifted toward higher inflation, while the labor market, in her words, is "generally balanced, but that balance remains fragile."
Fellow Fed Governor Michael Barr and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also signaled a preference for keeping rates at the current level, as policymakers assess how the conflict and higher energy prices could affect economic growth and inflation.

Global equity markets continued to decline and for the S&P 500 this marked a fifth straight losing week, as tensions in the Middle East continue to suppress risk appetite. On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.7%, bringing its weekly loss to 2.1%. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel and remains elevated amid persistent supply disruption concerns.
The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed in practical terms, keeping physical oil market tensions high, while hopes for a diplomatic resolution continue to fade - including against the backdrop of the ongoing buildup of U.S. military presence in the Mi

Short-term holders are trapped.
STH Realized Price: $85KBTC price: $67K
That puts the average short-term holder $18,000 underwater.SOPR has stayed below 1.0 for 110+ straight days.
And STH Realized Price YoY just turned negative for the first time since the 2022 bear market.
This is what prolonged market stress looks like.
Full brief below 👇

This week, the Weekly Engine reassembled all the market's key signals. On the surface, the structure still looks unstable, and beneath it enough weak points remain that single indicators cannot be trusted - only a full reading across all 7 data layers.
The key questions now: will pressure from LTH intensify, is the macro backdrop RISK OFF or RISK ON and should you open positions - and in which direction?
All the answers are in the latest Weekly Engine breakdown at the link below: 👇

Bitcoin🩸Long Liquidations
Yesterday, the market wiped out $413M in long positions, 3x above the quarterly average. Not an apocalypse (the quarterly record sits at $688M), but firmly in the top decile.
The market just reminded everyone who's in charge.

MARA Holdings, Inc. Announces $1.0 Billion Repurchase of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030 and 2031 and Sale of 15,133 Bitcoin

Moody’s Analytics raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs increased its estimate to 30%.

Bitcoin ETFs absorbed +63,000 BTC in 30 days.
Weekly inflows are now running 2.6x above the monthly average. At the same time, short-term holders are still selling at a loss: -15.5K BTC/day.
Institutions are buying. Retail is capitulating.
☕️ Morning Brief 134 👇

We already had two major educational series: Guide to Market Regime Indicators and On-Chain Fundamentals for Humans.
Today, the third one begins - Decision Architecture for Bitcoin.
Part 1 introduces the core framework: Bitcoin analysis through three layers - Structural, Tactical, and Trigger. Every signal should first be assigned to one of them. Recommended if you want a solid foundation for reading crypto markets.

Markets still lean toward de-escalation, but the signal is weak.
Macro regime is now Balanced: 10Y yields are neutral at 4.33%, but still rising, while SPX has shifted into range.
Risk assets will likely remain headline-driven and a real drop in yields probably needs a public de-escalation signal from the US and Iran.

More than 150K BTC still sits on OTC addresses linked to miners, while miner exchange inflow remains elevated.
Bottom line: the hidden supply overhang is smaller, but sell pressure hasn't gone anywhere.
Full breakdown in ☕️ Adler AM 133 👇

Whales are back on exchanges. Exchange Whale Ratio is now above both its 30D and 365D averages. And the 100-1K BTC band just spiked to 80% of total exchange inflow.
Large holders are becoming the flow.
☕️ Adler AM #132 - full breakdown below 👇

Market update after Trump puts Iran strikes on hold

BTC is trading exactly at the $68K cost basis of the 100-1K BTC whale cohort.
Above: $80K ETF resistance (holders still at -15%) Below: $47K deep support
The decision zone is here.
Morning Brief 131 👇

We’ve been building something new for active Bitcoin traders. A Decision Terminal that compresses on-chain + derivatives signals into one clear trade verdict.
First screenshots, realistic backtests, and this week’s Weekly Engine signal inside. 👇

In February - March 2026, the Coinbase Premium recovered from the negative readings that had reflected a capitulation of American demand, returning to a neutral-to-weak zone. However, the metric has yet to establish itself in a sustainably positive range, meaning a full-fledged bullish impulse from US investors remains unconfirmed.

Realized losses hit cycle extremes. But coins still are not moving.
That is not what a typical breakdown looks like.
Something is changing under the surface.
☕️ Adler AM #130 👇