AxelAdlerJr

I’m checking the LTF futures charts every other day, hoping for some signs of improvement, but I don't see any yet.

Who actually holds the supply? This lesson shows how STH/LTH Supply and HODL Waves reveal whether a rally has strong support - or is just weak hands chasing price.

True Diamond Hands Spectrum💎🙌

These three lessons will give you a basic understanding of one of the key pillars of on-chain analysis - unrealized profit/loss and the psychology of market cycles.
Save them to your bookmarks and set aside 2-3 hours over the weekend to calmly go through them and understand how it works.

Overall morning sentiment is neutral, but rising VIX and MOVE are strengthening a defensive bias and increasing the likelihood of a risk-off shift.

Gold recovered above $5,055 per ounce on Wednesday, approaching a nearly two-week high. The move followed weak U.S. data, as December retail sales fell short of expectations, signaling a slowdown in consumer spending and heightening concerns about moderating economic growth.

You can say all you want that BTC is fine, but the data tells a different story: the model classifies the current regime for STH as Deep Stress.
A detailed breakdown of the framework is here:

Bitcoin Realized Loss (7DMA) hit $2.3B - a level exceeded only once: during the Luna crash in June 2022.
But here's the key difference: back then it was $19K and a systemic collapse. Now it's $67K and a correction from ATH. Same scale of pain, completely different context.
new ☕️ Adler AM 👇

Most traders don’t lose because of bad TA. They lose because they misread the regime.
This Sunday: Trader’s Evidence 1-page companion to the Weekly Engine.
On-chain + derivatives snapshot.
LLM-ready (prompt included): instant interpretation of stress, positioning, bias, and invalidation.
Get access:

Cango sold 4,451 BTC for $305M - panic or deleveraging?
Difficulty is down 14%, Puell <0.8, but miner exchange flows remain stable.
Full breakdown in ☕️Adler AM #102 👇

Market volatility will remain elevated for some time.

Welcome to the deep bear market.

The drop from $72K to $59K triggered the largest cascade of long liquidations since the start of the year. Short-term holders sent a record volume of losses to exchanges this year.new☕️Adler AM 👇

I’m really worried about what’s going to happen at the US market open!

The market is falling - which means it’s time to look for capitulation. We’re learning how to identify the bottom zone using a ready-made aNUPL model.

STH Under Heavy PressureBitcoin crashed to $71K, dragging short-term holders deep into loss territory. Both on-chain indicators - SOPR and MVRV - confirm the market has entered a phase of forced selling with loss realization.new ☕️ Adler AM 👇

Even though the market is currently in a Deep Stress + Strong Stress phase, we haven\'t reached full capitulation yet. Wait / keep your powder dry.

Global market sentiment this morning