The atmosphere in the crypto market was subtle in the first week of December, with a clear downtrend. SHIB fell sharply to $0.0000084, XRP dropped 7.24% for the week but held above the $2 mark. Bitcoin struggled at a key level, and a breakout could potentially usher in a "Christmas rally."
Damn, SHIB is really trash. When it goes up, it's as slow as a snail, but when it drops, it's faster than a rollercoaster.
I won't even talk about XRP, it just hurts, bro.
BTC is at a critical point right now. It's either heading to 94300 or dropping to 84400. Let's see how it performs this week. Whether we can catch a good market at the end of the year all depends on this.
Recently in the cryptocurrency market, the altcoin season index has dropped to 19, far below September's 78, indicating that most altcoins are underperforming. In the past 90 days, only about 19 of the top 100 market cap projects have outperformed Bitcoin. Investor risk aversion is evident, with funds flowing back to Bitcoin, and investors holding altcoins are taking a wait-and-see approach.
[BlockBeats] Strategy CEO Phong Le recently discussed an interesting topic—how they handle bear markets. During the 2022 Bitcoin crash, Strategy actually managed to weather the storm. Their approach was: when crypto prices dropped, they continued issuing stocks and bonds, raising funds at a premium above net asset value, and then used that to buy the dip in Bitcoin. The bear market might slow things down, but the overall direction remains the same. Interestingly, there have been wild rumors in the market recently that Strategy can't afford to pay dividends, causing a lot of people to short Bitcoin. Phong Le directly refuted this: "We have absolutely no payment issues." To silence these rumors, they made a big move—setting up a $1.44 billion dividend reserve fund. Even more impressive, they raised the $1.44 billion in just eight and a half days, enough to cover 21 months of dividends. He said the purpose was to shut down market rumors and prove that even if...
Having the guts to buy the dip during a bear market is what real long-termism is about. However, raising 1.44 billion in just eight and a half days shows that the market still recognizes the fundamentals of Strategy. The key is whether this model can be sustained until the next bull cycle—that’s when the real test comes.
Bitcoin on-chain activity continues to rise despite recent poor price performance, which may indicate that the market still has bottom support. Activity typically reflects the inflow of new funds; although it lags behind price changes, the current positive momentum shows that the market is still functioning and not completely weak.
The cost for mining companies to mine Bitcoin has surged to $137,800, with profit margins being squeezed by the continuously increasing hash rate. Industry polarization is intensifying, with some companies shifting to AI and high-performance computing, while those sticking to traditional mining are facing increasingly severe survival challenges.
Shiba Inu’s Layer 2 network Shibarium recently underwent a security upgrade. After the blockchain explorer data was re-indexed, it showed 2.27 million blocks and 168 million transactions, though the data may be inaccurate. More importantly, Shibarium plans to launch a privacy upgrade in 2026, adopting Zama encryption technology to achieve on-chain privacy protection.
The Solana ecosystem is abuzz after Jupiter Lend's asset segregation commitment was exposed as false. A Fluid co-founder admitted that true segregation was not achieved, leading to user doubts. A Kamino co-founder blocked migration tools and accused users of being misled, exposing the risk of fund cycling. This has angered the community and raised concerns about the safety of principal funds.
[BlockBeats] Yesterday, the US finally released the long-delayed September PCE data. Core inflation’s annual growth rate dropped to 2.8%, hitting a five-month low and coming in slightly below market expectations. As soon as the data came out, traditional markets immediately began to play out the "soft landing" scenario: the US dollar continued to weaken, US Treasury yields declined, and US stocks kept rising at a steady pace. Normally, this environment is favorable for risk assets, since it gives the Fed more room to cut rates in December. But Bitcoin’s reaction has been rather strange. After the data was released, BTC fell instead of rising, dropping to around 87,000 at one point, with a 24-hour volatility of about 3%, clearly decoupling from the stock market. This pullback actually had little to do with the inflation data and was mainly due to a combination of factors: a concentration of options expirations, some pressure rumors around MicroStrategy, and significant volatility during the Asian trading session. Mainstream coins followed the correction, but interestingly, BTC spot ETFs were able to...
Even with such favorable inflation data, it still dropped to 87k. This move is really a bit ridiculous... The options expiration trick is getting old. What is MicroStrategy up to again?
XRP faces an awkward situation: although on-chain data appears optimistic, veteran investors are offloading heavily while new capital has yet to enter the market, creating a strange equilibrium. Since mid-November, XRP’s price has fluctuated repeatedly within the $1.81 to $2.28 range, with little momentum for a breakout, and neither bulls nor bears able to gain the upper hand.
The year-end central bank meeting week is about to begin, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision drawing significant attention as the market's probability of a rate cut rises to 84%. Internal disagreements are intensifying, and Powell may deliver important signals at the press conference. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada will also announce their interest rate decisions. Investors should pay attention to the actions and data changes from central banks in various countries.
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unrekt.eth:
An 84% rate cut? In my opinion, this is the real drama. With so much internal disagreement, any rate cut would be pointless.
Five opposed and three in favor—FOMC hasn't been this divided since 2019. Powell is probably going to be "grilled" repeatedly this time.
Whether or not they cut rates isn't the main issue anymore. The key is what these people are actually thinking; only then can we predict what's coming next in the market.