Emilyvuong

🔴 Short positions are very aggressive with U.S. oil funds
IEO short interest up to 2.8% -> near 4-year high (3x compared to early 2026) while price is still +33% and heading toward all-time high levels.
Oil is a very unusual case so it's not certain that large players shorting is a guaranteed win. Remember that oil futures prices once went negative during the covid period.

🔴 US TEMPORARILY SUSPENDS IRAN OIL SANCTIONS FOR 30 DAYS
Washington has temporarily opened the valve for Iran oil.
- A 30-day exemption license allows trading of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products already on ships, effective from 3/20 to 4/19/2026.
- Objective to pump approximately 140 million barrels onto the global market.

📍SPY & Q recognize -$64B outflow in 3 months
📌 This is the largest outflow recorded within a 90-day period. Marking a sharp reversal from +$50B inflow in November.
Based on AUM, the 3-month outflow reached -5%, the highest level since Q1/2023. The peak outflow by percentage in the decade was -8% in April/2018.
📌 This scale is nearly double the peak outflow decade (2018). Even COVID 2020 or the sell-off 03-04/2025 have never witnessed outflow levels this large, no such large capital withdrawal has occurred.
📌$SPY is an ETF that tracks the S&P 500 index (500 largest U.S. companies) while $Q

🚨 Just a few hours before FOMC
The Fed will almost certainly hold rates steady. The current market isn't even pricing in any rate cuts for the entire 2026 -> meaning high rates will be the prolonged status quo, no longer a contentious variable.
The key point to watch lies in the Fed's messaging. What will Powell say about the oil price spike?
And if the conflict drags on, will the Fed accept the risk of inflation returning to maintain growth stability, or continue to hold firm on its stance?
Expectation is that the Fed will view energy price volatility as short-term and will not impact medium

📍Trump Calls for Fed to Cut Interest Rates Immediately
Trump spoke directly with reporters at the White House - arguing that the Fed should hold a special meeting to cut interest rates right now.

🟠Israel claims to have eliminated 2 current top leaders of Iran's military:
- Gholamreza Soleimani - commander of the Basij forces
- Ali Larijani - Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council
These are 2 individuals currently holding power to run the country and the IRGC, frequently giving statements and appearing on television to direct the war. Iran has not confirmed this; nearly 24 hours have passed with no response to this news.

🟠US Ready for Unilateral Action at Hormuz
Trump declared that the US will independently reopen the Strait of Hormuz after NATO, Japan, and South Korea declined to participate in the campaign.
He also hinted at the possibility of regime change in Iran, indicating that objectives are expanding beyond maritime line protection to become a full-scale campaign to overthrow the current regime in Iran.
This move suggests the campaign could enter a new phase with greater tensions and risks of direct escalation between the US and Iran.

🟠 The market is betting that the DXY will strengthen.
📌 The options market indicates that capital is heavily favoring USD appreciation. The 1-month risk reversals have surged to +92bps — the highest in over three years.
📌 Notably, in January it was at -90bps — the market was leaning toward USD weakness but has now flipped to bullish. This rapid reversal is very rare in history.

🟠Cuba Accepts Opening Its Economy
After Cuba's power grid collapsed 100%, the US began negotiations, demanding Miguel Díaz-Canel step down as President but allowing the old regime to remain, with possible elections.
At the same time, Cuba will open its economy
- Allow Cubans living abroad to return to invest and own businesses
- Begin privatizing the economy
- US allows Venezuelan oil to be sold to the "private sector" in Cuba (OFAC 1238)
An unprecedented change since the 1960s. Will Cuba become the second Venezuela phenomenon?

📍Many people read somewhere that oil peaked in 2008 and then an economic crisis followed a few months later, compared to now. Even though oil has already peaked and declined, the current energy shock is very different from 2008.
In 2008, when oil prices surged to $147/barrel, the US was only producing around ~5 million barrels/day and still heavily dependent on imports from the Middle East. The oil price increase back then was like a direct tax on the US economy: transportation costs escalated, consumption weakened, and inflationary pressure spread widely.
But the US energy structure changed

🚨 US - China just held trade negotiations in Paris, focusing on sensitive areas such as agriculture, critical minerals, and "managed trade" mechanisms.
China expressed openness to increasing purchases of US agricultural products, including beef, poultry, and certain crops beyond soybeans. Beijing also reiterated its commitment to purchasing approximately 25 million tonnes of US soybeans annually over the next 3 years. Additionally, the US and China discussed strategic mineral supply issues.
The Paris meeting was primarily exploratory in nature and served as preparation for higher-level negoti

🟠Chinese startup Moonshot AI is raising additional capital at a valuation of around $18B, according to Bloomberg.
Moonshot – the company behind the Kimi chatbot – is now seen as one of China's most promising AI startups, as Beijing accelerates the development of large language models to compete in the global technology race.

💥Iran continues to lose senior leaders in military intelligence operations.
Abdollah Jalali Nasab - Director of Iranian Military Intelligence - is reported to have been assassinated by bomb just weeks after being appointed to replace his predecessor who died previously.
Notably, Amir Shariat - the figure expected to succeed Nasab - is also reported to have died today.
This development has prompted assessments that the United States and Israel are focusing on eliminating the leadership tier of the IRGC, while less directly targeting Iran's regular military forces.

Bitcoin has typically been the first asset to be sold when geopolitical tensions flare up.
But since the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz began, #BTC has started to outperform gold. Is the money flow changing?

🚨 WSJ: The Trump administration may receive brokerage fees for the TikTok deal
According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. government could collect approximately $10B during the arrangement of TikTok's operational transfer in the United States.
This money is reportedly coming from the investor group taking over TikTok US, consisting of funds and technology companies participating in restructuring the ownership rights of this platform following pressure from Washington on ByteDance.
📌 Information indicates that $2.5 billion has been transferred to the U.S. Treasury Department, with

🟠 Cuba Accepts Negotiations with US, Sensitive Move After Over 10 Years Since Obama Era
President Miguel Díaz‑Canel announced on national television that Cuba has begun negotiations with the US and will allow the FBI limited access to Cuban territory to assist in investigating an armed intrusion. Miguel also called this a "sensitive step" for the regime.
The last time the US accessed Cuban territory (publicly) was during the thawing of US-Cuba relations from late 2014. At that time, Obama and Raúl Castro announced the normalization of relations after more than 50 years of hostility.
Currently

🚨 Trump Wants to Extend Iran Campaign for a Few More Weeks
Trump is reportedly in favor of continuing military operations in Iran for approximately 3-4 additional weeks, as the conflict has yet to achieve its strategic objectives.
Some notable details:
- Following a call with G7 leaders, French President Emmanuel Macron acknowledged: "Nobody really knows what Trump wants from this war."
- The U.S. and Israel have yet to agree on a definition of "victory" in the campaign.
- Approximately 450 kg of Iran's highly enriched uranium remain uncontrolled, with nuclear risks unresolved.
Trump stated:

🟠 Washington reopens the trade front
📌The Donald Trump administration has launched a Section 301 trade investigation into 16 major partners, including China, the EU, Japan, India, Mexico, and Vietnam.
📌 The investigation focuses on excess production capacity—especially in major export industries. If the findings are unfavorable, Washington could impose new tariffs as early as summer.
📌 This move is seen as a way for the U.S. to reassert trade pressure after the Supreme Court of the United States rejected the global tariff program previously proposed by the Trump administration.