The current 4H level is currently in a typical bullish exhaustion phase: the moving average group has confirmed a death cross, the MACD death cross is accompanied by volume expansion in the histogram, and short-term momentum is clearly depleted.

While KDJ oversold brings technical rebound demand, historical patterns show that under this death cross + volume expansion background, rebounds are mostly corrective in nature, making it difficult for trending upward movement.

If this level stabilizes, it could rebound to the 72k resistance zone, but upward momentum is limited.

If there is an effective breakdown below 69k, it will open downside space, with 68k under pressure. By the end of the week, there is a low probability of a one-sided sharp rally, and the probability of breaking through the previous high of 73k in the short term is relatively low.

Unless there is significant incremental capital (ETF continuous large-scale net inflows) or the Federal Reserve turns unexpectedly dovish, the current structure does not support breaking through the previous high. Range-bound oscillation + bearish bias has a higher probability.