Abstract

• According to historical bull market pullback data, Bitcoin’s overall correction is relatively small, and market demand for Bitcoin remains strong.
• Due to a series of policies and events, Bitcoin’s price experienced a significant pullback, with net realized profit and loss turning negative, leaving some holders at a loss.
• Bitcoin’s spot price has fallen below the on-chain cost of short-term holders at $92,000, indicating increased selling pressure or weakened investor confidence.
• The market enthusiasm for the $BERA token peaked during the mainnet launch period and then rapidly declined.
• Since the launch of the Berachain mainnet, its total value locked (TVL) has continued to climb.
• The number of active wallets on Berachain peaked at 1.22 million before quickly pulling back, reflecting the exit of speculative capital.
• The circulating supply of the $HONEY token continues to increase, reflecting rising market demand.

On-Chain Data Summary

Key Bitcoin Metrics

Bitcoin Bull Market Pullback Magnitude

Based on the experience of the past three Bitcoin bull market cycles, we can roughly divide a bull market into two phases: the “initial ascent phase” and the “main ascent phase.” In the early stages of a bull market, the market often experiences a significant rebound trend, accompanied by intense price fluctuations.

Bitcoin has undergone corrections of more than 40% in crypto history during two bull markets. In the 2011–2013 bull run, Bitcoin surged from below $1 to triple-digit prices, experiencing drastic pullbacks exceeding 60%. However, these corrections facilitated bottom accumulation, ultimately pushing the price up hundreds of times. Similarly, in the 2018–2021 bull market, Bitcoin plummeted from a peak of $10,000 to around $5,000—a drop of over 50%—before soaring to $60,000, achieving a roughly 12x increase. These historical patterns remind investors to remain cautious during market upswings and to implement short-term risk management strategies.

In the current cycle (2022 and beyond), Bitcoin has also undergone multiple corrections, but the overall magnitude has been relatively small, with the largest pullback reaching only 16%. This indicates that market demand for Bitcoin remains strong. As shown in the chart below, the current bull market is still in its initial ascent phase, typically representing an accumulation of market energy before entering the capital-concentrated main ascent phase. Looking ahead, with support from spot ETFs and broader macroeconomic recognition, the main ascent phase is expected to commence, potentially driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs.[1]

Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss

According to on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s net realized profit/loss peaked in early December. Although it later declined, it remained in positive territory overall, indicating that most market participants were in profit. However, by late February, factors such as Trump’s announcement of tariff policies, global economic uncertainty, and a $1.5 billion hack on the Bybit exchange led to a sharp Bitcoin price correction. This resulted in net realized profit/loss turning negative, reaching approximately -$707 million, putting some holders in a loss-making position. This reflects a certain level of selling pressure on the market.[2]

On-Chain Cost Basis for Short-Term Bitcoin Holders

According to on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s spot price has fallen below the on-chain cost basis of short-term holders (investors holding for less than 155 days) at $92,000, putting most short-term investors at risk of losses. Previously, Bitcoin’s price mostly fluctuated between the upper band and the short-term holder cost basis, maintaining market stability during this period. However, by late February, Bitcoin’s price dropped below the cost basis for short-term holders, which could indicate significant selling pressure or weakened investor confidence. If the bullish support level fails to hold, prices may decline further, leading to market consolidation, requiring investors to remain cautious.[3]

Popular Token Dynamics Analysis

Overview of Popular Token Data

$BERA - The $BERA token is the native gas token of Berachain, used to pay transaction fees. Berachain is an innovative Layer 1 blockchain that adopts the Proof of Liquidity (PoL) consensus mechanism. The Berachain mainnet officially launched on February 6, 2025. Berachain features a unique three-token model: $BERA, the gas token used for transaction fees; $BGT, the governance token for network governance; and $HONEY, the native stablecoin within the Berachain ecosystem.

On-Chain Activity

Trading volume peaked on February 6, the day of the mainnet launch, reaching $2.035 billion. On February 21, the trading volume of $BERA significantly increased, primarily due to a price rebound the previous day. The price of $BERA surged approximately 13.7% on that day, boosting investor sentiment. Additionally, Coinbase’s announcement of increased support for Berachain contributed to the substantial rise in trading volume.[4]

$BERA Token and Berachain Market Sentiment Changes

The market sentiment surrounding the $BERA token and Berachain peaked during the early February mainnet launch but quickly declined afterward. On February 6, $BERA’s media engagement reached a peak of 14.97 million, but by February 28, it had dropped significantly by 90.3% to 1.11 million. Similarly, Berachain’s market media engagement peaked at 16.67 million on February 9, then fell 99.9% to just 10,000. This rapid cooling may be related to the fading of speculative sentiment in the market, as many investors actively participated in discussions during the mainnet launch period. However, with the initial bullish catalysts priced in and lacking further triggers, market enthusiasm naturally subsided, exhibiting a typical short-term hype effect.[5][6]

On-Chain Insights and Potential Assessment

Berachain TVL

Since the launch of the Berachain mainnet, its total value locked (TVL) has continued to rise, surpassing $3.05 billion as of February 28, marking a milestone in the ecosystem’s development. This data reflects investor confidence in its underlying technology and directly reinforces the value of the $BERA token. As the core asset for gas fee settlement, liquidity incentives, and governance within the ecosystem, TVL growth has significantly increased the on-chain demand and scarcity of $BERA tokens. Many users have staked assets to participate in the Proof of Liquidity (PoL) mechanism, further locking up the token’s circulating supply.[7]

Berachain Daily Transactions

Following the launch of the Berachain mainnet, on-chain daily transactions have stabilized within the range of 1 million to 2.5 million. This demonstrates the resilience of the network’s fundamental activity and establishes a value buffer for the $BERA token. Compared to the explosive growth in TVL, the steady transaction volume may indicate that the ecosystem has moved beyond its early speculative fluctuations and is transitioning into a more sustainable phase driven by real demand. Frequently DEX trading, cross-chain asset transfers, and staking yield farming consume $BERA tokens as gas fees, forming a stable deflationary foundation.[8]

Berachain Active Wallets

After reaching a peak of 1.22 million on February 9, the number of active wallets on the Berachain network quickly retraced, reflecting a temporary cooling of market enthusiasm. Although reducing active addresses may raise concerns about user retention, data shows that TVL remains stable at a high level of $3 billion, indicating that whale users and long-term stakers have not exited, and the ecosystem’s fundamentals remain intact. The sharp decline in active wallets is related to the exit of speculative funds, accelerating the optimization of the $BERA token holder structure.[9]

$HONEY Token Daily Supply

The $HONEY token is a stable asset within the ecosystem, minted through over-collateralizing $BERA tokens or other assets. This means that when market demand for $HONEY tokens increases, more $BERA tokens are locked within the protocol, reducing the circulating supply of $BERA tokens, which could drive up the price of $BERA. The chart shows that the supply of $HONEY tokens is continuously increasing, which may reflect rising market demand. Since $HONEY tokens are minted by over-collateralizing $BERA tokens or other assets, the growing issuance of $HONEY tokens implies a further reduction in the market supply of $BERA tokens. This supply contraction could support the price of $BERA tokens, especially when demand remains stable or continues to grow.[10]

Conclusion

In February 2025, the overall crypto market faced the pullback pressure of Bitcoin’s price. However, from historical data, this pullback appears more like a healthy adjustment phase within a bull market rather than a signal of a full market downturn. In the short term, Bitcoin recently broke below the cost price of short-term holders, which means some holders may face selling pressure, increasing risk. However, precisely because such selling pressure often facilitates low-price accumulation during a bull market cycle, from a long-term perspective, it helps further consolidate the market bottom, accumulating capital and confidence for the subsequent main upward phase of the bull market. Meanwhile, the Berachain mainnet’s launch and its ecosystem’s stable growth provide additional bullish signals for the $BERA token. While investors focus on short-term market fluctuations, they should also examine market trends from a long-term perspective, seize potential buying opportunities in healthy pullbacks, and pay attention to the steady development of ecosystem projects. This approach will allow them to appreciate greater value when the bull market turning point arrives.


References:

1. Glassnode,https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/48973bed-09bb-4957-71d4-c6405735bb38?s=1316564678&u=1740873600&utm_campaign=woc_04_2025&utm_medium=insights_woc&utm_source=gn_insights&zoom=
2. Glassnode,https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/indicators.NetRealizedProfitLoss?a=BTC&chartStyle=column&s=1732982400&u=1740758399&zoom=
3. Glassnode,https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/a2c0052b-64f2-4384-71d3-0fff4d6f3777?s=1732982400&u=1740758399&utm_campaign=woc_07_2025&utm_medium=insights_woc&utm_source=gn_insights&zoom=
4. Defillama,https://defillama.com/chain/Berachain?fees=false&appRevenue=false&stables=false&chainTokenVolume=true&tvl=false
5. Lunarcrush,https://lunarcrush.com/discover/bera?interval=1m
6. Lunarcrush,https://lunarcrush.com/discover/$bera?metric=interactions&interval=1m&scale=absolute
7. Defillama,https://defillama.com/chain/Berachain?fees=false
8. Dune,https://dune.com/queries/4809201/7971023?bera_tx_date_t6c1ea=Day
9. Dune,https://dune.com/queries/4809201/7971025?bera_tx_date_t6c1ea=Day
10. Dune,https://dune.com/queries/4809274/7971110

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