1月30日消息，比特币在纽约时段尾盘延续抛售，正式跌破自2025年11月以来守住的84,000美元关键支撑位，最低触及81,000美元，刷新两个月低点。数据显示，过去24小时内加密货币多头清算规模超过16亿美元，其中比特币多头损失高达7.5亿美元，价格动能明显转弱。
从技术面看，2026年开盘价87,000美元、100日均线以及84,000—86,000美元的需求区均被击穿，表明中期趋势已转向下行。与此同时，恐惧与贪婪指数从前一日的26降至16，重回“极度恐慌”区间。Crypto Town Hall 分析称，这种情绪往往出现在投降式抛售阶段，通常伴随高杠杆集中出清。
宏观层面同样承压。经济学家 Timothy Peterson 指出，美国消费者信心接近历史低位，在这种环境下，资金更倾向规避风险资产，比特币短期内缺乏上行基础。他认为，若情绪不改善，“上涨周期难以出现”。
对于后市目标位，多位分析师给出更低区间。Daan Crypto Trades 认为，价格可能回测200周均线，该指标目前位于约57,974美元附近，被视为长期价值区域。该位置与熊旗形态的下行目标重合，意味着较现价仍有三成左右的下行空间。
另一位分析师 Keith Alan 则指出，当前周线结构与2021—2022年熊市阶段相似。他预计，即便出现短线反弹，BTC仍可能跌破74,000美元，并进一步测试69,000美元；若跌速过快，年内甚至不排除向50,000美元区间靠拢。
在多重不确定性叠加的背景下，2026年被不少机构视为“熊市延续年”，比特币能否企稳，仍取决于宏观情绪与资金流向的实质性改善。
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