3月2日消息，随着伊朗最高领袖Ali Khamenei在空袭事件中身亡，与其死亡相关的预测押注市场正面临美国政界的强烈批评。部分美国参议员要求监管机构限制以个人死亡为结算条件的预测市场合约，此举迅速将加密预测平台和相关金融产品推至舆论焦点。
数据显示，去中心化预测平台Polymarket上与伊朗空袭时间相关的合约交易额已超过5.29亿美元。同时，预测平台Kalshi上关于Khamenei是否继续担任最高领袖的合约交易量也突破5000万美元，其中仅周六一天成交额就达到约2000万美元。随着空袭消息确认，相关合约迅速进入结算阶段。
根据Kalshi向Commodity Futures Trading Commission（CFTC）提交的文件，所有仓位按照Khamenei去世前最后一笔成交价进行结算。平台随后暂停交易并关闭合约。不过，市场页面关于结算规则的描述与正式文件存在差异，引发用户质疑。在空袭发生与死亡消息确认之间，市场仍持续活跃数小时，这也成为争议焦点。
Kalshi随后发布声明，承认部分规则表述存在歧义，并表示将退还所有市场费用。同时，若用户在Khamenei死亡之后建立仓位，相关交易将获得全额退款。
与此同时，区块链分析公司Bubblemaps发现，六个新创建账户通过准确预测2月28日伊朗袭击时间，共获利约100万美元。这些账户几乎只押注袭击日期，其中部分交易甚至在空袭开始前数小时完成。Bubblemaps首席执行官Nicolas Vaiman指出，战争和冲突类事件往往会吸引知情者提前下注，匿名交易环境可能放大这种风险。
美国参议员Adam Schiff已联合多名民主党议员致信CFTC主席Michael Selig，要求监管机构禁止与个人死亡相关的预测市场合约，并要求在3月9日前作出回应。行业组织Coalition for Prediction Markets也公开表示，涉及死亡事件的合约不应在美国市场出现。
分析人士认为，随着战争、政治和加密预测市场的交集不断扩大，监管机构未来可能加强对相关平台的审查力度，预测市场合约的合法性与伦理边界也将成为金融监管领域的新议题。
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