Big news! Trump’s tariff case is expected to be announced on the 9th, with three possible rulings analyzed.

The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of Trump’s global tariffs on the 9th, affecting $200 billion in revenue and the boundaries of the U.S. presidential executive power.
(Background recap: Federal Reserve regime change in 2026: The end of the Powell era, with U.S. interest rates possibly being “cut all the way down”)
(Additional background: Trump delivered a national security strategy speech that did not mention cryptocurrencies or blockchain, only discussing “financial innovation”)

According to foreign media reports, the U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to issue its final decision on the Trump administration’s “Global Equalization Tariffs” policy on Friday, January 9. This policy, invoked under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) in April 2025, imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 40%, generating over $200 billion in federal revenue.

However, lower courts found this action illegal, and the case was merged and appealed to the Supreme Court. Market and supply chain participants are holding their breath, as the ruling will determine the fate of large tax revenues and could reshape the president’s emergency trade powers.

( Three possible rulings and market sentiment predictions

Currently, there are three most discussed scenarios:

• The first is a “mixed ruling”: the court may determine that tariffs based on trade deficits exceed the authority granted by IEEPA but retain some items related to national security.
• The second is a “full policy confirmation,” symbolizing a significant concentration of tariff legislative power in the White House.
• The third is a “full government defeat.”

According to Polymarket data, the market estimates that the probability of a ruling unfavorable to Trump by the Supreme Court exceeds 75%; however, even if found illegal, the executive branch can still maintain pressure through other legal sources such as the “Section 301” provisions. White House economic advisor Hassett stated:

“Even if refunds are required, the administrative process is so complex that it is almost impossible to complete in one go, and it will not cause social unrest.”

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( Potential impacts from all sides

If the court indeed rules the policy unconstitutional, the U.S. government would theoretically need to refund $200 billion. Companies may face lengthy application and tax determination processes, making the timing of capital flow back uncertain.

More concerning is the issue of separation of powers: tariffs have traditionally been within Congress’s jurisdiction. The outcome of this case will mark whether the executive branch can unilaterally change trade conditions on a large scale under “emergency” circumstances without legislative approval.

For the global supply chain, this ruling will also impact procurement costs and sourcing strategies. But regardless of the outcome, the Trump administration has repeatedly indicated it will not give up the tool of tariffs, suggesting that international trade frictions in 2026 may remain the norm.

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