Odaily Planet Daily reports that Stanford Graduate School of Business professor and a16z & Meta advisor Andy Hall posted on X platform stating that his team has developed a new dataset focused on political prediction markets, liquidity, and settlement rules. The research found that the vast majority of political contracts in prediction markets lack activity, with only 1.3% of contracts having sufficient liquidity. Kalshi and Polymarket rarely list contracts with identical rules, leading to further fragmentation of liquidity.
Andy Hall proposed four improvement suggestions: first, list contracts on core issues and collaborate with independent organizations to define markets of social concern; second, pay market makers to inject initial liquidity into political markets; third, introduce AI agents to trade in areas where humans do not participate, generating price references needed by society; fourth, establish unified definitions and settlement rules across platforms. Andy Hall believes these measures will attract traders seeking to hedge political risks and turn prediction markets into the truth machines society needs.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Primitive Ventures: The "East-West Divide" in Prediction Markets — Why Are We Betting on Opinion Labs?
The article discusses the evolution of prediction markets, particularly how Opinion Labs has made breakthroughs in liquidity and localized belief trading through AI technology. There are significant differences between Eastern and Western markets in terms of focus and participation methods; the East emphasizes content and entertainment, while the West is moving towards financialization. Ultimately, Prediction Market 2.0 has evolved into a culturally driven, diversified development path.
PANews7h ago
$1.2M in Profits Tied to Insider-Linked Addresses in ZachXBT Market Bet
_Eight insider-linked wallets captured $1.2M in profits, mostly from single-market bets placed before odds shifted._
On-chain data has intensified scrutiny around a Polymarket event linked to a ZachXBT insider probe. Trading records show heavy profit concentration among a small cluster of wallet
LiveBTCNews8h ago
Prediction Markets Are Challenging Traditional Polling
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi offer a financial-based alternative to traditional polling, enhancing predictive accuracy by requiring participants to invest real money. Despite criticisms regarding participant demographics and potential manipulation, they are gaining traction among investors and strategists, potentially reshaping forecasting methods.
ICOHOIDER10h ago
ZachXBT exposes insider trading at Axiom, with Polymarket insiders profiting over $1.2 million in advance
Polymarket platform exposed an insider trading incident involving the use of non-public information for profit, with 8 addresses profiting over $1.2 million, harming the interests of ordinary investors. Data shows that 52 regular addresses lost over $1.6 million. The incident has sparked discussions about transparency and insider trading in decentralized finance, potentially prompting regulatory attention to compliance issues.
GateNews11h ago
Polymarket Trader Bets $150K on U.S. Alien Confirmation Before 2027
Gate News bot message, Polymarket trader SCssss returned after over a year of silence and placed a $150K bet on the U.S. confirming the existence of aliens before 2027, at odds of only 16.8%.
One year ago, the same trader bet on Harris winning the U.S. election.
GateNews16h ago
The 23 Major Flaws of the Prediction Market
Crypto KOL Alexander Lin points out that prediction markets have 23 flaws, including low capital efficiency, insufficient liquidity, lack of natural hedgers, and market manipulation risks. These issues make prediction markets difficult to become mainstream financial tools, contrasting with the effectiveness and liquidity of traditional financial institutions.
PANews16h ago
