The typical altcoin rally is likely to wane next year, with only “blue chip” cryptocurrencies seeing the lion’s share of liquidity, says CoinEx Research chief analyst Jeff Ko.
“Retail investors expecting a rising tide to lift all boats will be disappointed,” Ko told Cointelegraph. “We predict no traditional altseason; instead, liquidity will be ruthlessly selective, flowing only to blue-chip survivors with real adoption.”
Ko anticipated “modest global liquidity tailwinds in 2026,” tempered by divergent central bank policies, but added that Bitcoin’s historical sensitivity to the M2 money supply growth “has softened since the 2024 ETF launches, with correlation diminishing.”
He added that the company’s “base case sees Bitcoin targeting $180,000 by 2026.”
However, not all analysts agree, with veteran analyst Peter Brandt predicting another long, drawn-out bear market.
Bitcoin to next peak in 2029
Brandt, a veteran futures trader, said on Tuesday that in 15 years, Bitcoin has experienced five parabolic advances on a logarithmic scale followed by at least 80% declines, but the “current cycle is not done yet.”
However, when asked about the bottom of this cycle, he “projected the next bull market high to occur in September 2029.”
The prediction would line up perfectly with the four-year cycle theory and the peak coming a year after the halving event, which is due around April 2028. However, an 80% decline as seen in previous cycles could send BTC crashing back to $25,000 before that happens.
_Bitcoin’s five parabolic advances. Source: _Peter Brandt
Is the four-year cycle dead?
Historically, the fourth quarter of the year has often been one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods. Eight of the past 12 fourth quarters have seen Bitcoin’s biggest quarterly gains, and only one of them was a single-digit gain, according to Coinglass.
**Related: **__Bitcoin’s apparent demand shrinks, signals new bear market: Analysts
However, Bitcoin is down more than 22% over the current quarter, marking its second-worst fourth quarter in history so far.
Macro investing feed Milk Road said on Monday that “this usually means the market has flushed a lot of excess risk and weak positioning.”
“So for 2026, it doesn’t automatically guarantee upside, but historically, cycles that finish with a heavy reset tend to have better conditions to build strength.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $88,000, down 30% from its October all-time high.
**Magazine: **__Bitcoin’s critical level is $82.5K, Ethereum ‘not done yet’: Trade Secrets
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Trump Issues Ultimatum: Iran Must Open Strait of Hormuz Within 48 Hours "Or We'll Bomb Power Plants," Bitcoin Plummets to 68,000
Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum this morning (22nd) demanding Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz, otherwise the U.S. military will destroy Iran's power plants; following the announcement, Bitcoin plummeted rapidly to $68,000, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 9, indicating extreme market panic.
(Background: Iran launched medium-range missiles at U.S. and British bases, missing but with a range of 4,000 kilometers, "double what intelligence estimated")
(Context: Lai Ching-te approved: Nuclear Plants 2 and 3 "have conditions for restart," Taiwan's power shortage in the AI era cannot be sustained)
Contents of this article
Toggle
Middle East conflict has been burning for over 4 weeks
Bitcoin crashes to $68,000, liquidations of $236 million
48-hour countdown, market awaits three answers
U.S. President Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social at 7:44 AM this morning (22nd)
動區BlockTempo37m ago
RIVER surges 25% in one day: Will the uptrend continue?
RIVER has surged by 25% in 24 hours, with a 11% increase over the past week, driven by speculative trading and a 42% rise in open interest. Despite this, actual market demand remains weak, suggesting a possibility of upcoming corrections.
TapChiBitcoin2h ago
Today's cryptocurrency fear and greed index dropped to 10, still in extreme panic state
Gate News reports that on March 22, according to data from Alternative.me, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index dropped to 10, continuing its decline from yesterday's 12, and the market remains in a state of "extreme fear."
GateNews2h ago
Shiba Inu (SHIB) Sees Shorts Exit in 4 Hours While Price Eyes Recovery - U.Today
Shiba Inu's price fluctuated recently, rising to $0.00000622 before falling below the daily MA 50 at $0.00000604. Despite brief liquidations of short positions, long traders faced larger losses. Open interest in SHIB increased by 14.31%, indicating a growing trust in its potential rise amidst market uncertainties.
UToday3h ago
Why Isn’t XRP Surging With Adoption Growth? Evernorth CEO Explains
XRP’s price disconnect from real-world usage is raising concern as Evernorth CEO Asheesh Birla signals institutional adoption remains too limited to support sustained demand, despite expanding infrastructure ambitions across the network.
XRP Pricing Disconnect Highlights Institutional Gap
A
Coinpedia3h ago
Ethereum Mirroring April 2025 Crash Points to $1,750 As the Definitive Cycle Bottom
In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency, what initially appears to be mere coincidence in fractal patterns gradually transforms into a striking precision as these patterns evolve. A prominent analyst Ash Crypto recently made a
BlockChainReporter4h ago
