Toncoin breaks through the key resistance level, what are the next prospects?

Toncoin (TON) records a 2% increase over the past 24 hours, bringing the total weekly gain to 12.5%. This bullish momentum is believed to be driven by Telegram’s decision to officially launch the (self-custodial wallet) in the US market – a significant step to expand the ecosystem and increase user accessibility.

Notably, SkyBridge Capital founder – Anthony Scaramucci – also expressed a positive outlook on Toncoin. In an interview with Altcoin Daily, the Wall Street financier ranked TON among the top three cryptocurrencies he expects most by 2026.

According to Scaramucci, Telegram’s steady growth over time will directly boost demand for TON. He also revealed that he bought this token at around $7.50. However, at the time of writing, TON is trading around $1.72.

Source: TradingViewFrom a technical perspective, the imbalance zone on the daily timeframe – formed since November – previously served as a supply area throughout December. As the new year begins, this resistance zone has been broken, attracting strong attention from traders and investors.

Should you buy TON?

Current on-chain indicators still do not show many positive signals for potential investors. Although open interest (OI) has recovered since October, this increase remains modest compared to the peak set in August. More concerning, the mean coin age indicator has almost not improved over the past few months – a sign that long-term capital has not truly returned.

Source: SantimentThis reality clearly reflects a lack of accumulation activity across the network. Instead, Toncoin continues to face sell-offs, mainly driven by panic or short-term profit-taking. The MVRV indicator is rising but still below zero, indicating that most investors holding TON in the past three months are still experiencing slight losses.

According to data from Token Terminal, the number of weekly active users on the TON network has remained flat throughout the year, after a strong breakout at the end of 2024. This suggests that user growth momentum has significantly slowed.

Source: SantimentFrom a supply distribution perspective, the picture is also not very optimistic, as only small retail investors continue to buy and hold Toncoin. Conversely, large wallets – especially those holding 1,000 TON or more – are gradually reducing their positions, showing a clear distribution trend.

In addition to intrinsic factors, investors should also consider Toncoin within the broader context of the 2025 altcoin market, which is currently underperforming. Except for the period from June to September, Bitcoin remains the dominant asset. Meanwhile, the explosion of ETFs and digital asset treasury models has made it difficult for capital to flow into altcoins as in previous cycles.

Considering all these factors, Toncoin currently does not show enough convincing signals in price action or on-chain data to justify a long-term buy recommendation. However, in the short term, the price may technically recover from the support zone at $1.70, targeting nearby resistance levels at $2.01 and further at $2.35.

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