BlockBeats News, January 19 — “BTC OG Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin posted a lengthy article on social media stating that some analysts have recently compared the current Bitcoin price trend to the 2022 market (bearish). There may be some similarities in short-term price patterns. However, when looking at the long-term picture, such comparisons are completely absurd.
Garrett Jin explained that the current macro environment is the opposite of 2022. In early 2022, the primary goal of capital was risk avoidance, and Bitcoin was showing a high-position distribution structure during a tightening cycle. Under the current macro environment, the US liquidity index has broken through both short-term and long-term downtrend lines, and a new upward trend is emerging.
Additionally, between 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin exhibited a weekly M-top structure, which is usually associated with long-term cycle tops and can suppress prices for a long time. Currently, a weekly upward channel has broken down. From a probabilistic perspective, this looks more like a bear trap before a rebound back into the channel. While the possibility of a bear market cannot be ruled out, it is important to note that the $80,850/$62,000 range has experienced sufficient consolidation and turnover. The previous chip digestion process provided a better risk-reward ratio for bulls: the upside potential is significantly greater than the downside risk.
To restart a bear market, new inflation shocks or major geopolitical crises comparable to 2022 would need to occur; central banks would need to restart rate hikes or implement quantitative tightening; simultaneously, prices would need to decisively and persistently break below $80,850. Until these conditions are met, asserting a structural bear market is premature and more speculative than analytical.
The biggest difference between Bitcoin investor structures in early 2026 and 2022 is the shift from retail-led, high-leverage speculation to institution-led, long-term structural holding. In 2022, Bitcoin experienced a typical “crypto-native bear market” driven by panic selling among retail investors and chain-reaction margin liquidations. Now, Bitcoin has entered a much more mature institutional era, characterized by: stable underlying demand, locked-in supply, and institutional-level volatility.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
XRP Stabilizes Near Key Levels Amid Fed Pressure and Rule Shift
Key Insights
XRP stabilized near $1.31 as macroeconomic pressures and declining liquidity combined to limit recovery momentum and increase short-term volatility risks significantly.
Proposed stablecoin regulations favor utility models, positioning RLUSD for growth while reducing incentives t
CryptoNewsLand18m ago
BTC 15-minute up 0.98%: Whale transfers surge in tandem with geopolitical hedging demand
2026-04-07 21:00 to 21:15 (UTC), the BTC price saw a clear spike. The candlestick return rate recorded +0.98%, and the price range was 69309.9-70214.9 USDT, with a 1.31% amplitude. Short-term market volatility increased, participation interest rose, and trading volume and the number of active entities increased in parallel.
The main driver behind this move was whale trading activity. On-chain data shows that the transfer volume to exchanges by whale entities holding more than 1,000 BTC surged before and after the event window. Over the past 24 hours, whale inflow reached 10,5
GateNews33m ago
GLMR Rockets 19.44% as Altcoin Rally Gains Momentum
Moonbeam (GLMR) surged 19.44% to $0.0129 amid increased trader interest, driven by broader cryptocurrency trends and market participation. Analysts note potential for continued growth as resistance levels are closely monitored.
Coinfomania1h ago
SHIB Holds Weak Range as Burn Rate Drops and Pressure Builds
Key Insights
SHIB remains within a long-standing descending channel, with price stuck in the lower range and unable to break persistent resistance levels.
The burn rate dropped sharply, removing a short-term support factor and reducing retail-driven momentum seen earlier during increased
CryptoNewsLand2h ago
HYPE Price Break Signals Deeper Pullback Amid Weak Momentum
Key Insights:
HYPE broke below $37 support after repeated tests, signaling weakening buyer strength and confirming growing bearish control across short-term price structure movements.
Fibonacci levels identify $32.44 and $29.5 as critical demand zones, where buyers may re-enter as
CryptoNewsLand2h ago
Solana Price Faces Downside Risk as Bears Eye $74 Zone
Key Insights
Solana trades near eighty dollars as bearish momentum builds, with indicators signaling weakness and increasing probability of testing lower support levels soon.
Technical signals, including weak MACD and low RSI momentum, indicate sellers remain dominant, reinforcing downside p
CryptoNewsLand2h ago
