On January 22, news, Fundstrat founder and research director Tom Lee warned in his latest podcast that the beginning of the 2026 financial market may experience a “painful downturn,” followed by a potential rebound. He pointed out that escalating tariff policies, changes in Federal Reserve independence, and uncertainty surrounding the new Fed chair will cause significant disruptions in the early stages of the year. Tom Lee straightforwardly stated that the market usually conducts a “stress test” on the new Fed leadership, which often involves a phased correction, but from a medium to long-term perspective, lower levels could instead create new buying opportunities.
Looking back at 2025, the US tax season and the implementation of tariffs once caused Bitcoin to dip from $84,000 to $74,000, a decline of about 11%. Subsequently, after China and other countries reached key trade agreements, market confidence was restored, and Bitcoin rebounded to around $126,000 in October of that year. Recently, US President Trump mentioned that an agreement with Greenland is close to being reached, which also led to the cancellation of some tariff plans, temporarily easing macroeconomic pressures. This is seen as a potentially important factor supporting Bitcoin’s rebound.
As of now, Bitcoin’s price hovers around $90,000, about 10% below the recent high of $98,000 touched due to tariff fluctuations last week. Swissblock’s Bitcoin risk index has risen to 21, approaching the high-risk zone of 25, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase since November of last year. Its model shows that as long as the support level of $89,200 holds, the price could surge to $94,800, or even challenge $99,000; if it falls below this range, the $84,500 level below will serve as a critical defense line for bulls.
Institutional movements are equally crucial. US spot Bitcoin ETFs briefly turned net buyers at the beginning of 2026, pushing the price to around $98,000, but subsequent capital inflows stagnated, reflecting that, amid macro and geopolitical uncertainties, institutions are reassessing risks. For investors paying attention to Bitcoin price trends, the 2026 crypto market outlook, and Bitcoin ETF capital flows, the current tug-of-war around $90,000 may determine the direction of the next phase of the market.
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