On Polymarket, the probability that ROBO's FDV exceeds $200 million on its second day of trading is 69%

Lawmakers Target Kalshi, Polymarket With BETS OFF Act Proposal

U.S. lawmakers are introducing the BETS OFF Act to regulate prediction markets, banning bets on sensitive events like wars and terrorist actions due to ethical concerns. The bill aims to prevent harmful behavior and protect public interest, amid rising scrutiny of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

Polymarket Data: Probability of Crude Oil Breakthrough $100/Barrel on March 31st Rises to 63%

Affected by Middle East conflicts, Polymarket shows a 63% probability that WTI crude oil will break through $100/barrel by March 31, up 43 percentage points from the previous 24 hours. The probabilities of breaking through $105, $110, and $120 are 42%, 27%, and 16%, respectively.

Polymarket User Loses $31K on $57.5K Bet Predicting U.S. Invasion of Cuba by 2026

Gate News bot message, a newly created wallet spent $57.5K on Polymarket betting that the U.S. will invade Cuba in 2026. The bet temporarily pushed the odds above 80%. This person is currently down $31K on the position.

Israeli Journalist Receives Death Threats After Reporting, Are Polymarket "Bettors" Becoming Fanatics?

Israeli *Times of Israel* military reporter Emanuel Fabian recently disclosed that after reporting on an Iranian ballistic missile that struck an empty field in Beit Shemesh, a suburb of Jerusalem, he faced sustained harassment from bettors associated with Polymarket, including receiving death threats. This incident is particularly striking not only because it involves frontline war reporting and a prediction market with a funding pool exceeding $14 million, but also because it reveals an increasingly acute question: when market participants' profits begin to depend on media narratives, public information, and even violent events themselves, is the prediction market truly "price discovery," or is it creating dangerous incentives for the real world? Why did a frontline report trigger a mob of bettors? "That day, I reported on the *Times of Israel*'s live blog that the missile struck an empty field, with no

Argentina Blocks Polymarket, Orders App Removal Nationwide

A Buenos Aires court ordered telecom regulator ENACOM to block Polymarket nationwide. Apple and Google must remove the app from stores after authorities classified it as illegal gambling. The investigation cited inflation prediction activity and potential access by minors. Argentina

Four smart money addresses invested $97,000, betting that the Iranian regime will not fall before June 30

On the Polymarket prediction market, 4 addresses have invested $97,000 betting on whether the Iranian regime will fall before June 30. The probability of "yes" currently stands at 28%. Analysts believe that Iran faces military strikes and economic sanctions, with intensifying internal factional disputes, but the Iranian Revolutionary Guards still maintain control of the situation and regime survival remains intact.