The probability of the event "Russia will enter Bilyts'ke (Ukraine) before February 28" on Polymarket has surged from 11% yesterday to 97%.

New Wallet Loses Over $30K on Trump and Netanyahu Prediction Market Bets

Gate News bot message, A newly created wallet spent $109K on prediction market bets wagering on "Trump out / Netanyahu out." The wallet holder has lost over $30K on these positions.

High-probability account invests $150,000 betting that crude oil prices will not reach $200 before the end of March.

On March 26, on-chain monitoring showed that accounts with over a 93% win rate purchased about $15,000 worth of crude oil positions under $200 in the prediction market. The positions are currently flat with an expected profit of around $300. There are 4 days and 6 hours until settlement. The market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and oil-producing countries' policies.

U.S. Congress members ban staff from trading on Polymarket and Kalshi; the PREDICT bill proposes simultaneous restrictions on government officials.

U.S. Democratic Congressman Seth Moulton of Massachusetts announced a ban on all office staff participating in prediction market trading starting March 25, to prevent the exploitation of non-public information for arbitrage. He criticized prediction markets as a playground for corrupt insiders and called for the passage of the PREDICT Act to strengthen restrictions on Congress and senior officials. Recent legislative efforts have intensified, and market platforms are also enhancing insider trading monitoring.

The U.S. President may be banned from betting on prediction markets, as the PREDICT Act has been officially introduced.

U.S. House Representatives introduce the "Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Trading Act" (PREDICT Act), aiming to ban the President, Vice President, and Congress members from betting on political events in prediction markets to prevent insider trading issues. The bill imposes fines on violators and requires the forfeiture of profits. Additionally, a legislative wave is accelerating, including actions in multiple states and other prohibition bills, reflecting public concerns about prediction markets.

The U.S. plans to ban officials from participating in prediction market trading, as insider trading risks prompt regulatory upgrades.

U.S. lawmakers have introduced the PREDICT Act, which prohibits the President and senior officials from participating in prediction market trading, aiming to combat insider trading for profit. Violators will face fines and forfeiture of profits. At the same time, regulatory agencies are tightening their scrutiny of prediction markets, and several states have filed lawsuits against related platforms, resulting in stricter compliance requirements for the industry.

Hey Anon Announces Launch of “Pandora” Prediction Market on Ethereum

Hey Anon launches Pandora, a decentralized AI-driven prediction market on Ethereum, empowering users to create transparent markets without central control. The platform features unique AI consensus mechanisms and aims to innovate the prediction market landscape.