BlockBeats News, March 2 — The Middle East situation has sharply deteriorated, with the U.S. and Israel launching a large-scale airstrike against Iran. Iran confirmed that multiple high-ranking officials, including the Supreme Leader, were killed in the attack. The spillover effects of the conflict have quickly impacted global energy and financial markets.
President Trump stated that military actions against Iran could last about four weeks. The U.S. military has targeted hundreds of sites, including the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, air defense systems, and naval facilities, and confirmed that nuclear facilities were not involved. The U.S. disclosed the use of B-2 stealth bombers and other equipment.
Iran announced the formation of a temporary leadership committee. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have launched the ninth round of “Real Commitment 4” operations and reported shooting down multiple U.S. and Israeli drones. Iran warned that if energy facilities are attacked, it will strike regional oil and gas infrastructure.
Shipping data shows over 200 ships anchored in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters, including oil and liquefied gas carriers. An oil tanker was attacked and damaged along the Persian Gulf coast. Insurance brokers estimate war risk premiums could increase by 25%–50%.
Goldman Sachs estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz supply is fully disrupted for six weeks, oil prices could face an risk premium of $18 per barrel; if only 50% of supply is interrupted for one month, the premium could be about $4. International oil prices surged, with Brent Crude and WTI Crude Oil rising significantly at the start of trading. Many institutions believe that if oil prices approach $90 per barrel, global inflation and monetary policy paths will need to be reassessed.
Risk aversion has increased, with gold strengthening, the U.S. dollar remaining stable against the Japanese yen, and the dollar weakening against the Swiss franc. The euro fell below 1.18 against the dollar. Major Middle Eastern stock indices declined 4%–5% intraday, Iran’s stock market suspended trading, and several UAE exchanges announced temporary closures. According to CME “Fed Watch,” the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in March is 93.6%, with markets still betting on no policy changes in the short term.
The U.S. Capitol will implement enhanced security measures. The UK reported an explosion at a British military base in Cyprus. Some areas in northern Pakistan have imposed curfews. The EU announced plans to deploy additional ships to strengthen security in the Red Sea and Gulf regions. Analysts believe the key variables are:
- Whether the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked;
- Whether the conflict expands to a broader region;
- Whether rising energy prices reignite global inflation expectations.
If energy transportation remains smooth, markets may see a temporary recovery; if oil and gas supplies are substantially impacted, global asset prices could experience further volatility.
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