MLB Signs Exclusive Polymarket Prediction Market Agreement, US State Regulators at Odds

The Major League Baseball (MLB) announced on Thursday that it has designated the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket as its exclusive official prediction market partner, with contracts reportedly valued at up to $300 million. The timing of this announcement is particularly intriguing—just two days after Arizona filed 20 criminal misdemeanor charges against Kalshi (accusing it of operating illegal gambling), with states across the U.S… still divided on regulation of prediction markets.

Core Terms of the Tripartite Agreement

(Source: MLB)

MLB’s announcement involves two parallel significant agreements:

Exclusive Partnership with Polymarket

• Polymarket and its approved brokers gain exclusive rights to use MLB branding, logos, and trademarks
• Access to official MLB real-time data via Sportradar
• Promotional exposure within MLB’s digital ecosystem and event activities
• Joint establishment of integrity frameworks to restrict market types that could raise concerns about game manipulation (including individual pitch data, coaching decisions, and umpire performance)
• Incorporation of integrity controls into Polymarket’s US rules manual, requiring all brokers to adopt unified standards

Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the CFTC

This is the first such MOU signed between a U.S. professional sports league and a federal regulatory agency. MLB President Robert Manfred and CFTC Chairman Michael Selig jointly signed, establishing formal channels for confidential information sharing and requiring designated representatives from both sides to meet regularly to monitor integrity threats in baseball prediction markets.

Federal vs. State Jurisdiction Battle over Prediction Markets

MLB’s move carries political implications far beyond commercial cooperation. By simultaneously signing agreements with the CFTC and Polymarket, MLB effectively recognizes the stance that “prediction markets should fall under federal derivatives law rather than state gambling commissions.” Manfred emphasized in interviews the fundamental difference between CFTC federal jurisdiction and state regulation of sports betting.

Currently, the jurisdictional battle has the following main developments:

States’ Countermeasures: Over 20 civil lawsuits and cease-and-desist orders at the state level challenge whether prediction markets are regulated gambling; on March 17, Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi.

CFTC’s Position: Chairman Selig publicly called Arizona’s criminal case “completely inappropriate,” describing it as a “jurisdictional dispute,” and stated that the CFTC is “closely monitoring the situation.”

Congressional Movements: The House has introduced bipartisan bills proposing to ban sports betting contracts (unless explicitly permitted by the state) and to prohibit election prediction markets; simultaneously, the “BETS OFF Act” aims to ban prediction markets on terrorism, assassination, and war.

Contract Termination Clause: The agreement includes an “emergency termination clause”—if courts ultimately rule that prediction markets violate state laws, the partnership will be immediately nullified.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did MLB, which previously opposed prediction markets, choose to cooperate now?

MLB did indeed warn players last summer against using prediction markets, citing violations of sports betting rules. However, this partnership reflects a convergence of commercial interests, federal regulatory recognition, and industry maturation. Polymarket’s global trading volume reached $33.4 billion in 2025, and ICE (the parent company of the NYSE) invested $2 billion at a $9 billion valuation, transforming from a crypto-native platform into a significant financial infrastructure with institutional influence. Facing such a large market, MLB has shifted from “opponent” to “beneficiary,” leveraging CFTC’s federal backing to buffer regulatory risks.

If states ultimately win legal battles, what does the contract termination clause imply?

The termination clause explicitly acknowledges the current regulatory uncertainty. If federal courts ultimately rule that prediction markets are illegal without explicit state authorization, MLB and Polymarket can exit the partnership safely through this clause, avoiding deeper legal liabilities. This design allows both parties to enjoy the benefits of cooperation while maintaining flexibility to respond to worst-case scenarios.

What broader significance does the MLB-Polymarket partnership have for the cryptocurrency market?

This collaboration marks a milestone in the mainstream acceptance of crypto-native prediction markets. Built on Polygon blockchain and settled in USDC stablecoin, and after securing institutional investment from ICE, Polymarket’s official partnership with MLB demonstrates how crypto infrastructure is deeply embedding into traditional sports and entertainment industries. If this mainstream trend continues, it could further promote regulatory clarity and attract more traditional financial and sports institutions to explore similar crypto collaborations.