Wintermute: Correlation between crypto and US retail stocks turns negative; US stock activity may serve as a leading indicator

Odaily Planet Daily News: Wintermute’s latest report indicates that since the end of 2024, the correlation between retail funds in the crypto market and the US stock market has shifted from positive to negative. The report states that while retail funds have poured into US stocks at record levels, overall trading activity in the crypto market has become more cautious, with the total market cap of altcoins and retail activity declining in sync.

Data shows that the volatility ratio of BTC/NDX has continued to decline, dropping below 2 times in the first half of 2025. As investment tools like ETFs improve and cross-platform trading channels are established, the switching of funds between crypto assets and traditional stocks has become more convenient.

Wintermute believes that retail trading activity in US stocks is becoming an important forward-looking indicator for observing crypto market trends. Investors should consider changes in capital flow from a multi-asset allocation perspective.