On-Chain Data Analysis Company CryptoQuant Issues Warning: Due to a明显 weakening in Bitcoin demand momentum, cryptocurrencies may have entered a bear market, and the subsequent downside risks cannot be ignored.
CryptoQuant recently released a report stating: “The demand growth for (Bitcoin) has明显 slowed, indicating that the market is entering a bear market. Since 2023, Bitcoin has experienced three waves of spot demand surges, driven by the US spot ETF listing, the US presidential election, and Bitcoin reserve companies.”
However, since early October 2025, this demand growth has fallen below the long-term trend line, indicating that the new buying interest in this cycle has been largely absorbed by the market, causing Bitcoin to lose a key support level.
Based on the current weak trend, CryptoQuant believes that the downside risk for Bitcoin is gradually emerging. “$70,000” is the first important support zone. If the market cannot重新凝聚多头动能, a further decline to $56,000 cannot be ruled out. The report points out:
From historical experience, Bitcoin’s bear market bottom often aligns with the “Realized Price” (reflecting the average cost basis of all holders), which is currently around $56,000.
If this level is truly tested, it would mean Bitcoin has fallen approximately 55% from its all-time high, potentially making it the bear market with the smallest retracement in history.
Bitcoin’s medium-term support level is around $70,000.
Regarding the timing of market concerns, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno revealed: “A retracement to $70,000 may occur within the next 3 to 6 months; as for the deeper drop to $56,000, if it happens, it could be in the second half of 2026.”
He further added that this bear market actually began in mid-November this year, following the largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency history on October 10.
3 Major Data Confirm: Capital is Retreating
CryptoQuant listed three key data points supporting the view that “the bear market has arrived”:
1. ETF Turning into Net Seller: In Q4 2025, US Bitcoin spot ETFs have shifted to a “net outflow” status, reducing holdings by approximately 24,000 BTC, contrasting sharply with the strong buying momentum seen in the same period last year.
2. Large Holders Shrinking: Addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC (including ETFs and institutions) are growing at a rate below trend lines, a sign of demand deterioration similar to late 2021, just before the 2022 major bear market.
3. Derivatives Cooling Down: Funding rates of perpetual contracts (calculated as a 365-day moving average) have dropped to the lowest since December 2023. Falling funding rates typically indicate reduced willingness among longs to maintain leverage, a classic bear market feature. Additionally, the price has broken below the 365-day moving average, which is often regarded as the bull-bear dividing line in technical analysis.
CryptoQuant also提出了一个颠覆性的观点：“驱动比特币4年周期的核心引擎是‘需求循环’，而非‘减半事件’。” When demand growth peaks and begins to decline, regardless of supply-side dynamics, a bear market often follows.
It is worth noting that CryptoQuant’s pessimistic tone starkly contrasts with recent Wall Street major firms’ views, and the market’s bulls and bears are engaged in fierce battles:
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