分析師:當前市場比特幣拋壓以盈利籌碼為絕對主力,且幣價繼續上行仍將面臨虧損籌碼拋壓

BTC-2.28%

BlockBeats 消息,1 月 17 日,Crypto Quant 分析师 Axel 發文表示,根據「比特幣短期持有者 24 小時盈虧轉移至 CEX 總量圖」數據顯示,過去 24 小時內,約 35,400 枚處於盈利狀態的比特幣流入了 CEX,為近兩個月來最高數據。而虧損籌碼的流出量極低,僅約 4,600 枚。盈利/虧損流出比率約為 7.5:1。獲利了結行為明顯佔據主導,恐慌性拋售極少。

Axel 解釋稱,在虧損率極低的情況下出現高額獲利了結,是一種符合邏輯的市場表現。那些在 85,000–92,000 美元區間買入的投資者,正利用價格逼近成本線的機會鎖定利潤。這種流向結構表明獲利了結行為主導了市場拋壓,這與虧損倉位的恐慌性拋售是性質完全不同的壓力類型。一旦盈利/虧損比率發生反轉(即虧損驅動的拋售開始佔據主導),看跌情景將會加劇,不過這並非必然條件。

各項圖表描繪出一幅連貫的畫面,虧損率已收窄至最低水平,而恰恰是在這個區間,獲利了結行為變得活躍。價格正在測試成本基準區域,同時面臨來自盈利倉位的高位供應壓力。

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